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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd