Daily Murders in the nation Drop 37% Under President Sheinbaum, Per Government Data

The average count of everyday murders per month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh official data. But, public safety experts have cautioned that homicide numbers could fail to signal better countrywide stability.

Significant Decline in Daily Figures

There was an mean of close to 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President began the leadership in September of last year. This data was provided by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded in these months is remarkably significant,” the President stated, adding that the previous month the least amount of homicides were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Intense cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's highly militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in the past few years. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x greater than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her national security approach for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced coordination between government authorities.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts warned that relying on murder numbers to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is notably true in light of the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not reliable for assessing the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the desire to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of everyday killings was also problematic because it might obscure days when there were notably high numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day average renders spikes of violence unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme bloodshed, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-related violence. Last month there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to express their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to create a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst remarked.